Why upa government can fall

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Congress strategists, seasoned politicians and even Opposition party leaders know better as the realities of coalition politics tell another story. Realpolitik can be fascinating to watch, more so when there is talk that the fall of a government is imminent. But don't reach for the calculator yet to gauge the course. Agreed, it is hard not to, when television screens are blazing "countdown to the downfall of the UPA regime". They did it again earlier this week after yet another "coalition crisis": the DMK's withdrawal of support to the UPA government.

Not by any stretch of imagination, Delhi's battle-hardened politicians would say. Rather, they would dismiss the development with a contemptuous yawn.

Reason: in today's coalition era, it is not the numbers that matter but the dynamics of politics. The Manmohan Singh government has time and again proved its mastery here. Subscribe to ETPrime. Browse Companies:. This is fair enough but there were other factors he does not consider. After the election victory, hubris had set in. Congressmen and even ministers complained that the PM was now too aloof. The two had always got along but once Sonia Gandhi fell ill and spent long periods abroad, this balance was broken, never to be restored during UPA II.

Now, the people who handled the politics in her absence felt that Singh was surrounded by fools and cronies and consequently, were more and more disenchanted with him. Singh, a decent and gentle person, had been temporarily led astray by the second election victory and believed in the slogans his supporters raised. When things began to go wrong, he retreated into a shell, hardly communicating with the nation.

The Gandhis got it wrong too. Sonia Gandhi followed a policy of sacking anyone accused of even the slightest impropriety. This did not make her seem moral and high-minded, as she may have believed it might. Instead it contributed to the public perception that her government was full of crooks. Rahul Gandhi had been a newcomer during UPA1. But in UPA 2, he behaved badly. According to Ahluwalia, Rahul later apologized to Singh but the damage was done. Ahluwalia refers to how hostile the media became to UPA2.

This was true but not entirely surprising. And there was one new factor which the UPA never understood till the end; digital and social media. The BJP had decided to portray Manmohan Singh as an ineffectual slave of the Gandhi family the view reflected in such movies as The Accidental Prime Minister - though not in the book the film claimed to be based on while Rahul was portrayed as an entitled moron. It was an innocent era and nobody in India had heard of troll farms or glove-puppets. In fact, many of your expectations have been exceeded.

In the euphoria, however, let us not suspend our critical faculties. It's early days yet and we must ask ourselves what does the verdict mean? So far we have got answers such as peoples' desire for change, peoples' anger against an arrogant government, a victory for a party with a development agenda. There is some truth in all of them. But don't we say all these things every time a long-time incumbent in government loses?

We mouth such platitudes till the media circus lasts and then forget to take stock of the import of verdicts. Modi has been lauded for his administrative acumen and the development agenda he has pursued in his home state Gujarat.

In the run-up to the elections several of his achievements—both actual and phoney—have been tom-tommed. It's natural then that the verdict be seen as an endorsement of the so-called Gujarat model. In a similar vein, the verdict is also being seen as a rejection of UPA's model.